|
|
Custom Stats
|
|
STAT BASED SELECTIONS
Many sports gamblers will look over a stat sheet before
they make a bet. Some even do extensive research of different
statistical categories to make a better pick. Unfortunately most common
stats are basically meaningless and even misleading. There are stats
that matter but they must be interpreted and applied in the correct way
to assist in making a choice between two teams.
One common mistake is
putting too much emphasis on the number one team. Is the number 3 or
number 4 scoring offense that much worse than the number 1 scoring
offense? No way! The top 5 are all basically equal with maybe a
slightly better team at number 1. But the number 1 team is going to get
a lot of publicity just for being number 1 and the public opinion
(which is what the oddsmaker bases the lines on) swings much more
heavily for that top team and you will be facing a very big number if
you take that team. So skip the top team and take a close look at the 2
through 5 teams on your stat sheet and you will usually find a better
situation.
The standard stat sheets are just not that helpful. They are
there only to categorize and rank certain aspects of a team or
individuals performance. What you need to do when using stats is first,
to look at the areas of a teams performance that can show an edge and
second, you must look at recent data.
For example: Turnover margin in
football it is the plus or minus difference between take aways and give
aways. Most sports bettors just look at which teams have the best plus
margin and go with them which is fine, however there is a better way to
get an edge. Use only the data from the last 3 or 4 games and instead
of looking at turnover margin, look at the give away numbers only. The
reason for this is the fact that a team can control how well they take care of the ball
but can't count on the other team turning it over. By looking at
turnover stats this way you can focus in on the teams that are
currently taking good care of the football and avoid teams that are
giving it away. Trendbetting.com compiles custom stats that matter for
each sport so that the most recent trends can more easily be identified
to assist in your stat based handicapping.
STATS THAT MATTER
Some stats are more important than others when
handicapping a ballgame. The public loves offense and offensive stats
but handicappers and the pros love the dominant defense. When there is
a close game that you need to find an edge in, look at the defense. The
yards allowed rushing defense number specifically. Teams that keep
decent runners at a low average yards per carry, or that keep great
runningbacks under their current average per run should get a second
look. Turnovers is a stat that you should keep an eye on. How many
games have you seen come down to the last few minutes and the team with
the ball could win the game, only to have an interception or a stripped
ball seal the win for the other side? Teams that protect the ball are
victorious in close games more often than not.
STATS THAT DON'T MATTER
There are so many stats and most of them just don't matter.
A team has a good record after playing on monday night football, after
playing a certain team or the last game before a bye week. Stats or so
called trends like those really don't help you get an edge. They are
numerical anomalies, coincidences that are useless when picking a
winner. Then there are the bets made because one team has beaten
another team 14 or 15 times out of 20 going back 8-10 years. What a
foolish way to choose between teams. What happened in the last decade
has no influence on the game coming up this weekend. The coaches are
different, the game plans are different. There is probably not a single
player from the current squads that played in those games. Year over
year stats just don't matter very much.
There are stats that matter and stats that just do not. Total points scored in the last
3-4 games matters, total yards passing for the season does not. You want to look at
each teams stats for this season generally, and the last 3 or 4 games
specifically. Look for the teams with low penalties, low turnovers and
that is top in red-zone scoring offense. These are some of the more
important stats. Get every stat that matters in the members area.
MOST RECENT TRENDS
Stats are like girls in bikinis, they reveal a lot but not
everything. There are many stats that you think would show you
something but really show very little. Scoring over the season is one
example. It really doesn't matter what happened in week one of the NFL
season when you are looking at a game in week ten. Season stats are ok,
but focus more on the last few games.
For example: lets say that a team
got a great start to the season, played a couple of weak defenses and
ran up scores of 35, 47and 42 in easy wins. A few more decent games of
more than 30 points scored puts them first in scoring and the media
hypes this up constantly. Skip to week 10 where this same team has some
key players standing on the sideline injured, they have lost 2 out of
the past three games scoring 13 points in a loss, 14 points in a 14-10
win, and 7 points in a loss. They are still top 5 in scoring based on
average points scored per game on the season. The opponent this week is
a top 10 defense and has an offense that lines up a pro-bowl running
back and are on a 2 game winning streak (a 21-3 and a 27-7 win) but have only
the 19th place scoring offense. Novice gamblers compare the top 5
offense to a bottom half of the page offense and likes the higher
ranked team because ranked being so much higher on the stat sheet they
must be so much better. Right? He also remembers seeing some
spectacular sports center highlights from their first two games of the
year and takes the plunge getting +4.5 on the road. Bad idea. It will
likely finish the other way but no matter what the outcome is, if you
make your picks because of year long stats it is just an additional
risk to your hard earned bankroll.
Focus on the most recent trend,
going back 3, 4 or 5 games at the most. In the members area you will
find 3 and 5 game stats for NFL and NCAA football, 5 and 10 game stats
for NBA, MLB and NHL seasons.
|
|
|
|
STOP
betting against the Trend.
Click the join button to become a member today!
Trendbetting.com
Where the Trend is your friend
|
|
|
|
|
.
|
Trendbetting
Nuetral Zone
|
In sports gambling
you win with
Bet On Trends.
Bet Against Trends.
(Nuetral zone teams are
a crap shoot)
|
|
|
