Marlins vs. Nationals, 8-7-2017 – Expert Prediction

 

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Miami Marlins (51-57 SU, 57-51 RL, 56-45-7 O/U) vs Washington Nationals (64-44 SU, 53-55 RL, 53-51-4 O/U)

When: 7:05 PM EDT, Monday, August 7, 2017

Where: Nationals Park in Washington D.C.

Lines: Washington -320/ Miami _270

Total: 8

Major League Baseball within the National League East this evening and the Miami Marlins will square off with the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park in Washington, D.C. in game one of their four-game series. Pitching Probables: Chris O’Grady (2-1, 5.40 ERA) gets the nod for the Nationals and he will be opposed by Max Scherzer (12-5, 2.21 ERA).

Stanton Takes Over The League Lead In Homers

The Miami Marlins came into their series with Atlanta having won two in a row at home against Washington. Their offense had been hot and the Braves have been a bad team on the mound at home, but the Marlins lost the first two games of that series and scored just five total runs in the process. This has been an inconsistent team all year long and that is why they will not be a part of the playoffs, Miami is now 24-29 on the road and they have averaged 5.23 rpg and have a 5.08 ERA on the road this year. The Marlins are 13 games out of first in the National League East. The Marlins have been led this year by Giancarlo Stanton, who has 36 homers on the year, which is tops in the league, but just one of them have come against the Nationals in the nine games the teams have played against each other. Toeing the rubber for the Marlins in this one will be Chris O’Grady and he has gone 2-1 with a 5.40 ERA in five starts in this his first year in the league, including 1-0 with a 5.53 ERA in his last three starts and 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts on the road. He faced the Nationals in his last start and it was his worst start so far as he allowed six ERs on seven hits in just three innings of work. He left the game down 6-0, but the offense scored the final seven runs in the game to get him a no-decision.

The Marlins have been a solid offensive team so far as they come in ranked 13th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.72 rpg, while also ranking 4th in hitting at .266 and 17th in homers with 131. On the mound, they have been a bit below average so far as they come in ranked 19th in the league in ERA at 4.63, while also ranking 21st in WHIP at 1.40.

Nats Look For Revenge Against Marlins

Last week these teams squared off and the Nats won game one of that series by a score 1-0, but they fell in game two by a score of 706, after having a 6-0 lead and then in game three they were blitzed by a score of 7-0. The Nationals are 20 games over .500 for the year, but they have struggled with Miami as they have gone just 4-5 against them this year. This really is not a huge series for the Nats as they already have a 13 game lead in their division, but still they would like to get some revenge on the Marlins for last week’s struggles in Miami. The Nationals are coming off a tough series in Chicago, so it may be a bit tough for them to get up for this series, but they will try and they have gone 29-22 here at home. Getting the nod for the Nationals will be Max Scherzer, who was taken out of the last start early with neck injury. He is listed as questionable for this one and if he doesn’t go then I will have the right pitcher listed here. He has gone 12-5 with a 2.21 ERA in 22 starts on the year, including 1-0 with a 4.50 ERA in his last three starts and 4-3 with a 2.82 ERA in nine starts here at home. Scherzer has gone 21-11 with a 3.64 ERA in 48 games (46 starts) in August and he is 17-13 with a 2.97 ERA in 40 career starts in this park, while against the Marlins he has gone 6-3 with a 3.45 ERA in 12 starts.

Washington has been a very good offensive team this year so far as they come in ranked 2nd in the league in scoring, putting up 5.45 rpg, while also ranking 3rd in hitting at .274 and 3rd in homers with 163. On the mound, they have been solid so far this year as they come in ranked 9th in the league in ERA at 4.12, while also ranking 9th in WHIP at 1.27.

Trends

Miami is:

  • 3-8 in their last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning record
  • 2-5 in their last 7 vs. the National League East

Washington is:

  • 36-15 last 51 home games in this series
  • 7-3 in their last 10 vs. a team with a losing record

The Nationals did not play well in the final two games against the Marlins last week and they are off a tough series in Chicago, plus they don’t even know if Scherzer is start this game or not. A bunch of negatives for the Nationals, but still, I feel they will be able to walk away with a win in this one. The Nationals would like to get some revenge for last week and they have the offense to do some damage against Chris O’Grady, plus we note that the Marlins are just 15-36 in their last 51 games here in Washington. I look for the Nationals to play well in this series overall and it starts with this game.

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Pick: Washington -1.5*

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