Reds vs. Pirates, 8-1-2017 – Expert Prediction

 

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Cincinnati Reds (42-63 SU, 51-54 RL, 55-45-5 O/U) vs Pittsburgh Pirates (51-54 SU, 54-51 RL, 41-58-6 O/U)

When: 7:05 PM EDT, Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Where: PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA

Lines: Pittsburgh -155/ Cincinnati +145

Bet at 5dimes


Total: 9

Major League Baseball action on Tuesday evening and the Cincinnati Reds will duke it out with the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park in Pittsburgh, PA in game one of their three-game series. The Under is 10-4-1 the last 15 meetings between these teams in Pittsburgh. Pitching Probables: Homer Bailey (2-5, 8.37 ERA) gets the nod in this one for the Reds and he will be opposed by Jameson Taillon (6-4, 4.03 ERA).

Reds End Six-Game Losing Skid On Sunday

The Cincinnati Reds are again one of the worst teams in the league and they have really been struggling of late as they have lost 14 of their last 17 games. They just had a six-game slide, but ended that on Sunday with a 6-4 win over the Marlins on the road. Tucker Barnhart had a big game with two hits and three RBIs, while Luis Castillo had a strong outing on the mound as he allowed just one ER on three hits in 8.0 innings of work. He is now 2-4 with a 3.56 ERA on the year. The Reds have really struggled on the road this season as they have gone just 17-35 away from home and they have averaged 4.19 rpg and have allowed 5.58 rpg in those games. Taking the hill for the Reds in this one will be Homer Bailey and he has gone 2-5 with an 8.37 ERA in seven starts on the year, including 0-3 with an 8.44 ERA in his last three starts and 2-2 with a 6.64 ERA in four starts on the road. Bailey has gone 12-11 with a 4.77 ERA in 35 career starts in August and he is 8-6 with a 3.58 ERA in 19 career starts against the Pirates, including 5-2 with a 2.58 ERA in nine starts here at PNC Park.

Cincinnati has been a below average offensive team this year so far as they come in ranked 19th in the league in scoring, putting up 4.55 rpg, while also ranking 17th in hitting at .253 and 12th in homers with 142. On the mound, they have been poor so far as they come in ranked 30th in the league in ERA at 5.28, while also ranking 28th in WHIP at 1.45.

Pirates Come Home Off A Long Road Trip

The Pittsburgh Pirates are hoping to stay in the race for a playoff spot but it has not been easy of late. They come into this game off a nine-game road trip, in which they went just 3-6 on. Despite that stretch, they are still just 5.5 games out of first in the National League Central. The Pirates did end the trip on an up note with a 7-1 win over the Padres. Prior to that, they had lost their previous four games in a row and they scored just eight runs in the four games. Andrew McCutchen had a big game with three homers, three RBIs and four runs scored, while having a big outing on the mound was Gerrit Cole as he allowed just one ER on five hits and two walks in seven innings of work. He is now 9-7 with a 3.97 ERA on the year and McCutchen is now up to 22 homers. The Pirates are 27-23 here at home for the year. Toeing the rubber for the Pirates in this one will be Jameson Taillon and he has gone 6-4 with a 4.03 ERA in 14 starts on the year, including 1-2 with a 10.12 ERA in his last three starts and 3-2 with a 3.79 ERA in seven starts here at home. Taillon is 1-1 with a 3.19 ERA in five career starts in August and he is 5-4 with a 3.20 ERA in 18 career starts in this park, while against the Reds he has gone 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA in four starts.

Pittsburgh has been a poor offensive team this year so far as they come in ranked 24th in the league in scoring, putting up just 4.25 rpg, while also ranking 23rd in hitting at .247 and 29th in homers with 102. On the mound, they have been average so far as they come in ranked 13th in the league in ERA at 4.20, while also ranking 15th in WHIP at 1.36.

Trends

Cincinnati is:

  • 4-17 in their last 21 road games vs. a team with a losing record
  • 1-9 in Bailey’s last 10 starts vs. the National League Central

Pittsburgh is:

  • 5-0 in their last five vs. the National League Central
  • 11-5 in their last 16 games vs. a right-handed starter

This is not a great spot for the Pirates as they are off a long road trip, which they did not play well. Still, they are taking on a team that is playing perhaps the worst baseball in the league right now and a Cincinnati team that has gone just 17-35 on the road. The Pirates are still very much alive for a playoff spot and they have won six of their last seven games here at home. Their pitching has been very solid of late, and the Reds can’t hit right now. Jameson Taillon gives the Pirates a big edge on the mound as he is 3-2 with a 3.79 ERA here at home, while Bailey has gone 2-5 with an 8.37 ERA on the year, including 2-02 with a 6.64 ERA on the road. Bad spot for the Pirates, but they will overcome it with a much-needed win tonight.

Pick: Pittsburgh -155*

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