If you read last week’s article then you know we’re leaning on the Falcons. If not, be sure to check it out. As more and more of the public money funnels in on the Patriots -3 (currently 66%) and Vegas has made no moves to adjust the line, we feel even more confident in our early prediction. It appears Vegas is taking a stake in Atlanta and so should you.
For the more standard bets and predictions, please refer to last week’s article. Below, I will describe some of my favorite picks for Superbowl Sunday Prop Bets.
The Prop Bets
The superbowl is famous for giving betting souls countless opportunities to make ridiculous wagers. For example, you can bet on whether Luke Bryan will be wearing a hat when he sings the national anthem, or how many times “Trump” will be mentioned in the television broadcast. Check your sportsbook for all the bets you can make. I’ve curated some of my favorites that I think are actually worth a stab. However, remember these are much more volitile than traditional spread-bets and should be considered more for fun than anything else.
First Team to Score
We’re taking the Falcons here at -105 for two reasons. First, they score on almost every single one of their opening drives. Second, I believe that no matter how the coin toss unfolds, the falcons will be getting the ball. Bellechick is a smart coach who typically chooses to defer the possession to the second half. The Falcons, however, are a score fast and score often sort of team that will be looking to come out swinging in this game. I think there is almost no chance the Falcons will opt to defer if they win the toss and there’s a decent chance the Patriots will do so if they win. With all this considered, the chances of the Falcons starting the game with the ball are better than the Patriots doing so and if the Falcons start the game with the ball we can expect them to score.
Team to Score the Longest TD of the Game
This is another bet we’re taking in favor of Atlanta at -115. When you consider each team’s probable offensive strategy for this game, the Falcons come out as likely favorites to break off a big play. The Patriots will be doing two things on offense. They will be running the ball and they will be dumping it off the Martellus Bennett. The two biggest weaknesses of the Falcons defense are its ability to defend against the run and agaisnt receiving tight ends. Neither of those will lend themselves to long plays. However, on the other side, Atlanta has multiple play-makers who are capable of breaking off a big one even if you consider the fact that the Pats will be trying to shut number 11 down. Plus, big plays are kind of their forte.
Tom Brady Total Passing Yards
Were taking under 305.5 here at -105 for many of the same reasons as described above. Expect to see a run-heavy offense that tries to keep Matt Ryan off the field for as much time as possible. I expect Brady to have a good game, but not a 300+ game.
LeGarrette Blount Total Rushing Yards
Were taking the over 57.5 at -115 and HAMMERING this bet. Blount is going to be the centerpiece of this offense and should break this number in the first half.
More Rushing Yards, LeGarrette Blount or Tevin Coleman
Were taking Blount -12.5 at -115 here for the reasons discussed above plus the fact that we expect Tevin Coleman to be mroe of a threat in the passing game than the running.
Martellus Bennett total Receiving Yards
We’re taking over 37.5 at -130 and absolutely hammering this one as well. Bennett is a top-notch receiving TE and the Falcons will struggle to defend against him. Expect Bellechick to know this going into the game and to make full use of it. 37.5 yards is nothing.
Devonta Freeman to Score the First TD of the Game
This is a +800 bet and is therefore a total boom or bust pick. Don’t blow your bankroll on this but I like the value as a stab. I’ve already explained why I think the Falcons will be the first to score, and I think Freeman has the best opportunity to be the one to do it. He’s a weapon both on the ground and in the air in the redzone and the Pats will still be doing their best to temper Julio Jones’ production early in the game. It’s a total flier but throw 25 bucks on it and have fun.
Mohammed Sanu to Record the Most Receiving Yards in the Game
Thsi is another boom or bust pick at +1000 but I like it as a flier. Sanu proved that he was a guy Matt Ryan could lean on in the NFC Championship and I think he can easily be the top receiver on Falcons if the Patriots are even remotely successful at holding off number 11. With that said I like 10x value on him as a fun bet.